Destruction of the Kakhovskaya HPP: what Ukraine is losing and the consequences for global food security

2 days after the destruction of the Kakhovskaya HPP by the Russians, it is safe to say that this crime has caused significant damage to Ukrainian agriculture. In addition, it undermines global food security. In fact, according to preliminary estimates, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine foresees the flooding of roughly 10,000 hectares of agricultural land on the right bank in Kherson Oblast. Several times more land will be flooded on the left bank of the Dnieper, which is currently under occupation. But this is only one of the many problems we faced. Let's consider them in more detail.

Irrigation:
It is already known that the man-made disaster will stop the water supply of 31 field irrigation systems in the Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions. In 2021, these systems provided irrigation for 584,000 hectares, from which we collected about 4 million tons of grain and oil crops worth about 1.5 billion dollars. The terrorist attack on the Kakhovskaya HPP actually left 94% of irrigation systems in Kherson, 74% in Zaporizhzhia, and 30% in Dnipropetrovsk regions without a source of water. The destruction of the hydroelectric power station will lead to the fact that the fields in the south of Ukraine may turn into deserts as early as next year. Without the Kakhovsky Reservoir, not only farmers and water users will suffer, but also the sources of drinking water supply in populated areas.
"Ukrainian hydromelioration systems" believe that irrigation will be impossible in the Kherson region for 2-3 years.
"By blowing up the Kakhovskaya HPP, the occupiers caused significant direct and indirect damage to Ukrainian territories, which will manifest itself over time. If we talk in the context of agriculture exclusively, in particular irrigated agriculture, then irrigation will be impossible in the Kherson region for 2-3 years," the report says.
In general, there are 426.8 thousand hectares of irrigated land in Kherson region, or 21.6% of the total area of agricultural land, including 384.5 thousand hectares from state irrigation systems, 42.3 thousand hectares from local irrigation. Water supply to these areas is carried out by the powerful pumping station of the Main Kakhovsky Main Canal, the main pumping station of the Syrogozhsky Main Canal, the main pumping stations of Zonalna, Rubanivska, Zolotobalkivska and others, as well as the main structure of the North Crimean Canal. Damages from damage to the irrigation systems of the Kherson region will amount to tens of billions of US dollars.

Bioresources:
The destruction of the Kakhovskaya HPP will also have negative consequences for fisheries. The death of fish, both young and adults, is already recorded. The spawning period has just ended, and due to the drop in the water level, the spawn will dry out in the wet areas. In addition, the fauna of the reservoir carried away by the water flow into the floodplains formed below the Kakhovskaya HPP dam will also die. After all, in the future, when the "flood" wave subsides, these biological resources will end up on dry land. Another problem will be the entry and death of freshwater fish and other biological resources in the salty waters of the Black Sea. In turn, the Black Sea fauna can also die from the massive influx of fresh water. As a result of the destruction of the Kakhovskaya HPP, losses to the fishing industry from the death of only adults may reach 95 thousand tons worth about 4 billion UAH. In total, according to preliminary calculations, losses from the death of all biological resources will amount to UAH 10.5 billion. Experts have already emphasized that the negative consequences of the devastation of water bioresources will continue for several years in a row, even if the bed of the Kakhovsky Reservoir is filled in the near future.

Ecology:
After the Russians blow up the Kakhovskaya HPP, the sandy bottom may open, which will lead to the formation of a new desert with all the climatic consequences. As stated in the article "Kakhovsky Hydroelectric Power Plant Undermining: Consequences for the Agricultural Sector and the Ecology of Southern Ukraine" on Latifundist.com, in the event of a desert, one should expect a decrease in precipitation, dust storms, a rise in temperature in the region and, accordingly, a greater risk of drought in the fields of the center and south of Ukraine.
In turn, the head of State Enterprise "Forests of Ukraine" Yury Bolokhovets stated that the detonation of the Kakhovskaya HPP will lead to the flooding of 55,000 hectares of forests, of which 47,000 hectares are occupied territories.
"The left bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region is planted with pine forests. A fertile layer of forests and young plantations could literally be swept away by a stream of water. Pine grows well where it is dry. In flooded places, stagnant water provokes the development of root rot, changes the acidity of the soil. This threatens to kill the trees if the water stays for up to 20 days, as predicted. Trees up to 10 years old are under special threat," he explained.
Animals, according to Bolokhovets, are actually doomed.
"Perhaps, someone will manage to cling to an island of land, but the vast majority will simply be carried away by the current into the open sea. These are deer, roe deer, wild boars. Lizards, snakes, hares, hedgehogs have no chance," he added.

Grain:
Undermining the Kakhovskaya HPP will cause problems with the grain infrastructure in Ukraine, because a significant number of elevators and port terminals have been built in the lower reaches of the Dnipro. Acting executive director of the Ukrainian Grain Association, Serhiy Ivashchenko, commented on Forbes.ua: "Obviously, all this will be undermined - we will be able to assess the consequences later." The specialist also reminded that the Kherson region has cultivated areas at the level of about 1.4 million hectares, which are mainly concentrated on the left bank, which suffered the most.
The market has already reacted to the event. According to the results of trading on June 6, wheat quotations on the exchange rose to the maximum value of the last 3 weeks. At the same time, on the Euronext exchange, wheat quotations did not undergo significant changes and, according to the results of trading, amounted to 230.25 euros, since the main influence on prices on this platform was exerted by high competition from Russian wheat in the tender of Egypt. At the same time, the situation with the explosion of the Kakhovskaya HPP restrained a more significant decrease in European grain prices, as it caused concern about the possible formation of logistical problems in Ukraine, which could negatively affect the pace of shipment of Ukrainian wheat.

Vegetables and fruits:
Kherson Oblast falls out of the agricultural sector for an indefinite period. Many fruit and vegetable farms are located right on the banks of the Dnieper. And even if they are not flooded, then a zone of risky farming has already formed there - it is very warm, but in the absence of water nothing will grow, because water does not go to most of the Kherson region through the canal. In fact, this year there will be no cheap vegetables and fruits in Ukraine in the near future. All because the area, where large volumes of products were grown, will not function for a long time. And it was the shaft from these areas that brought down the market price, in particular for tomatoes.

Economy:
In an interview with Forbes.ua, the head of the state-owned company "Ukrhydroenergo" Ihor Syrota noted that we will all see the role of Kakhovskaya HPP in the coming days.
"In addition to the stabilizing role for the power system, the reservoir of the Kakhovskaya HPP provided water to a huge number of people and enterprises. This will not happen now," he explained.
According to the specialist, to build a new station, you need from $800 million to $1 billion. In addition to the station, it will be necessary to build a bridge and a railway crossing, because all this has been destroyed.
“If you work 24/7, it will take five years. And we will do it," summarized the head of Ukrhydroenergo.