Disruptions in bread and its increase in price, together with other social food products, are possible in Ukraine

The president of the All-Ukrainian Association of Bakers and the director of the Kyiv Bread company Yury Duchenko believes that there is a real risk of bread shortages in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Finance, in June and July, the main producers of bread in Ukraine were either in the red or at zero. And flour prices have increased by 50% in the last few months and continue to increase. If in April producers bought flour at 10,000 per ton, now it costs 15,000, and by November the price is expected to be 16-16,200. Flour in the cost price of bread is about 40%. Other raw materials have also risen in price by more than 20% since the beginning of the year.

Because of this, the expert believes, it is necessary to raise bread prices by 15-20%. And if this does not happen, many bread factories may stop, and there will be bread shortages in the country. At the same time, bakers cannot increase the price of bread adequately to the increase in the prices of raw materials and the increase in their costs. As a result, there are large cash gaps, enterprises cannot settle their contractual obligations on time.

It should be noted that the prices of social products have already increased in Ukraine. After all, the same bread, as well as flour and pasta, are always in the diet of Ukrainians. They are an integral part of the national cuisine and traditions and play an important role in ensuring the country's food security, as they are the basis of nutrition for many families. According to monitoring data from the Ministry of Finance portal, wheat bread has already become more expensive - the average price of wheat bread (sliced ​​650 g) has increased to UAH 34.45. Feather pasta also showed a slight increase in price, about 3%.

In addition, the abnormal heat, which lasted in Ukraine for about three weeks, will lead to a significant decrease in yield and negatively affect food prices. Everything from potatoes and carrots to eggs and meat will become more expensive. As reported by the executive director of the Seed Association of Ukraine, Suzana Hryhorenko, in general, the sown area in Ukraine has been decreasing for the third year in a row for both spring and winter crops, partly due to logistical difficulties and the full-scale invasion of Russia and shelling of Ukrainian energy systems. Because of this, difficulties arise with crops that need to be dried, for example, corn. Also, the heat will have a negative impact on the sunflower crop, and soybeans will be the most affected of all crops this year. Also, the heat in Ukraine will have a negative effect on the crops of potatoes, carrots, cabbage and other borscht vegetables, which will lead to an increase in market prices. So we expect that borscht will be more expensive in the fall. In addition, tomatoes and cucumbers, which are not grown in greenhouses, were significantly affected by the heat.

In turn, the director of the Economic Discussion Club Oleg Pendzyn says that the price of products is affected not so much by heat and rain as by power outages. According to him, food products, in particular meat and dairy products, require cooling of raw materials and the appropriate temperature regime for sale. If he does not comply, at the exit we get lost products, which leads to an increase in the price of what is left. Therefore, by the end of August, Ukrainians may see an increase in the price of milk and meat. In addition, in the new season, the livestock and dairy sector will have a negative impact and a low grain harvest. In particular, for example, 70% of the cost of egg production is compound feed, the basis of which is corn itself.

It is worth adding the words of acting Taras Vysotskyi, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, who noted that the shortage of electrical energy can affect the cost of a significant group of goods. The pessimistic scenario of entrepreneurs in the processing industry is an additional 10% of the cost. The optimistic scenario is from 3 to 5% in addition to current prices. The pessimistic scenario is based on calculations when almost all the time enterprises will be forced to work on generators due to restrictions, that is, the cost of production will increase accordingly. The optimistic scenario – 3-5% price increase is based on the fact that until October inclusive, most of the time enterprises will work by connecting to the usual network power.