Experts expect a decrease in production volumes in the Ukrainian agricultural sector

In the current year, the volume of production of gross agricultural products in Ukraine may decrease by 2.1% compared to the previous year. The relevant information was published by the press service of the Institute of Agrarian Economics.

As Yuriy Lupenko, director of the NSC, noted, this reduction in agricultural production may be related to the continuation of the war in Ukraine and the problems of economic development as a whole caused by it. In particular, under the influence of logistical problems of export of agricultural products and a decrease in purchase prices, agricultural producers are forced to reduce the production of the most productive types of products, such as wheat and corn.

The expert also added that the loss of income of domestic agricultural enterprises in 2022 and the increase in the price of resources reduce the opportunities of farmers to purchase seed material and ensure the technological process

But in general, according to the forecast of scientists of the Institute, the expected production of agricultural products in 2023 will ensure the internal food needs of the state. At the same time, the level of provision for certain types of products will even increase, although it will not exceed the pre-war level, but it indicates the stability of domestic agricultural production," concluded Yuriy Lupenko.

In turn, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy has already announced the first forecasts for this year's harvest.

"The projected area of grain and industrial crops for the 2023 harvest in the territory controlled by Ukraine is 19.3 million hectares, which is actually comparable to the figure of the previous season (19.8 million hectares). At the same time, the area of sown winter crops for the 2023 harvest was 1 million hectares less than in the previous season, while in spring it is expected to be 556,000 hectares more," the message states.

The Ministry forecasts the total sown area of grain and leguminous crops in the current year at the level of 10.24 million hectares (-1.409 million hectares before the indicator of 2022). Of them, winter wheat – 4.166 million ha (-834 thousand ha), spring wheat – 285 thousand ha (+67 thousand ha), winter barley – 536 thousand ha (-255 thousand ha), spring barley – 1.041 million ha (+111 thousand hectares), corn - 3.618 million hectares (-451 thousand hectares).

A decrease in grain acreage, along with a projected decrease in average yield, caused by rising input prices, will affect harvest volumes. Thus, the total gross collection of grain and leguminous crops in 2023 may amount to 44.3 million tons against the previous year's figure of 53.1 million tons. In particular, the harvest of wheat is expected at the level of 16.6 million tons (20.5 million tons in 2022), barley - 4.8 million tons (5.6 million tons), corn - 21.7 million tons (25.6 million tons).

At the same time, the gross production of oil crops is expected to increase to 19.2 million tons against 18.2 million tons last year. In particular, the sunflower harvest is forecast at 11.5 million tons (11.1 million tons), rapeseed - 3.8 million tons (3.7 million tons), soybeans - 3.9 million tons (3.4 million tons). . An increase in sugar beet production is also expected - 11.3 million tons (9.7 million tons).