Milk production is decreasing due to a decrease in the number of cows

The press service of the Association of Milk Producers reported that the number of cows decreased by 13% in 2022, and the domestic industry lacked almost 1 million tons of milk. At the same time, the population reduces milk production and cuts livestock more significantly than industrial farms. The dairy industry suffered the greatest losses of livestock and production volume in the first months of the war. The occupation of territories and military actions resulted in the fact that a large number of livestock was simply destroyed by the Russian invaders. At the same time, the population fleeing the war from the occupied territories and the zone of active hostilities was forced to sell or leave their livestock, saving the most valuable.

As of January 1, 2023, the cattle population was 2.3 million heads. The number of cows in all categories of farms decreased by 13.1% to 1.34 million cows. Industrial producers, according to preliminary estimates of the State Statistics Service, kept 387.6 thousand cows, and homestead farms kept 953.8 thousand cows. Industrial enterprises produced 2.621 million tons of milk in 2022, which is 5.3% less than in 2021. Households reduced production more significantly. In total, the homestead sector produced 5.038 million tons of milk, which is 15.3% less than in 2021. In general, due to the war, the industry did not receive 1 million tons of milk.

According to AVM analysts' forecasts, from the end of February to March, milk production in the country has a chance of growth, so the development of the market will depend on the activity of demand, both external and internal.

It should be noted that since the beginning of the full-scale war, the prices of milk and dairy products have increased significantly, so it has become more difficult for Ukrainians to afford something in this category. Maksym Hopka, an analyst of the Ukrainian Club of Agrarian Business, emphasized in his comments to the media that several factors could affect the price increase in February, including the cost of fuel and lubricants and power outages. At the same time, according to the forecasts of scientists of the Institute of Agrarian Economics, retail prices for milk and dairy products may rise by an average of 5%, including the cost of pasteurized milk with a fat content of up to 2.6% may jump to 40 hryvnias per liter.

Let's add that, the average price tags for milk in February are almost equal to last month's prices. At the same time, some dairy products, such as cheese, rose in price. According to analysts' forecasts, from the end of February to March, the production of milk in the country has a chance of growth, so the development of the market will depend on the activity of demand, both external and internal.