Russia will soon withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative - forecasts and statements

Ambassador of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine on special assignments Olha Trofimtseva believes that Russia will withdraw from the Black Sea grain initiative in July "with a probability of 99.9%".

According to the diplomat, the reason for this Russian decision will be two main factors: Recep Erdogan's victory in the presidential elections in Turkey and Russia's completion of an ammonia export terminal, due to which "the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline is no longer so important."

"What will we do at the same time? The Ministry of Infrastructure says that there is a plan B. I have not seen it, but if we are talking about 20 million hryvnias allocated for compensation for damage to ships, then it is nothing. And this is not a plan," Olga Trofimtseva believes.

"We will enter the second winter of war, and it, according to my feeling, can be much more difficult than the previous one. From all points of view," the ambassador emphasized.

In turn, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Serhiy Vershinin noted that the Russian Federation may withdraw from the grain agreement as early as next month if its export conditions do not improve. His remarks came only a day after meeting with US officials in Geneva to discuss the grain agreement. Because of its role in global food security, Russian food and fertilizers have escaped Western sanctions despite the war in Ukraine. But the Kremlin claims that difficulties with payment, insurance and logistics complicate Russian exports.

We will remind you that during his speech to bloggers, the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, made several statements regarding the grain agreement - the agreement that Russia will not block the Black Sea ports of Ukraine and will not interfere with the export of agricultural products from them.

"We are now thinking about getting out of this grain agreement. All the more so because these corridors through which ships travel are constantly used by the enemy to launch drones, maritime drones," he emphasized.

Currently, the UN is concerned about the situation with the grain agreement and is working hard to extend it. As UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres stated, the Russian side can really withdraw from the grain agreement, and this causes concern.

It should be noted that the Black Sea Grain Initiative was concluded in Istanbul in July 2022. The UN, Ukraine, Turkey and Russia became its participants. The essence of the document is to create a corridor that allows grain to be safely exported from three ports of Ukraine - Chornomorsk, Odesa and Yuzhnoye, which is impossible without additional guarantees in the conditions of a full-scale war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.