The next wheat harvest in the world may decrease by 16 million tons

In an April report, IGC analysts raised the forecast for world wheat production in the 2023/24 marketing year to 787.3 million tons (+0.3 million tons to the previous forecast). As noted by a number of mass media, this indicator is 15.7 million tons inferior to the indicator in 2022/23 MR (803 million tons).

It should be noted that experts predict an increase in the grain harvest in India - up to 109 million tons against 108 million tons earlier, which is also higher than the result in the current season (107.7 million tons), the EU - up to 137.8 (136.6; 133.8 ) million tons and in the Russian Federation - up to 83.6 (82.8; 95.4) million tons. At the same time, the forecast was lowered in the USA to 49.4 (51.4; 44.9) million tons.

Analysts lowered the forecast for world wheat exports in the coming season to 193.1 million tons, due to the reduction of this forecast in the USA and India. However, experts increased the forecast of grain shipments from Argentina to 12.5 million tons, the EU to 36 million tons, and Ukraine to 11.5 million tons.

At the same time, the forecast of world final stocks of wheat in the 2023/24 marketing year was reduced to 277 million tons. In particular, analysts made downward adjustments for Canada, the Russian Federation, the USA and India. At the same time, the forecast was increased in Argentina, the EU and Ukraine.