The wheat harvest forecast for Ukraine is increased by all controllers of the agro-industrial complex market

USDA experts increased the wheat harvest forecast in Ukraine. The same is stated in the notification of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine. In particular, the world wheat harvest in the 2023/24 marketing year, according to the USDA forecast, will be at the level of 793.3 million tons, which is up 3.3 million tons. The total export of wheat is expected at the level of 209.3 million tons (-2.23 million tons), and experts estimated the forecast of final stocks of wheat at 265.6 million tons (-0.92 million tons). At the same time, USDA experts increased the wheat harvest forecast in Ukraine in 2023/24 MR to 21 million tons (against 17.5 million tons in the last report). Final stocks will increase from 1.59 million tons to 4.13 million tons.

In turn, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine also updated the forecast for the gross production of grain and oil crops. This year, Ukrainian farmers can harvest about 56.4 million tons of grain, as well as 20.3 million tons of oilseeds. At the beginning of the spring of 2023, the total gross harvest for the current year was forecast at 63.5 million tons, which was 13% less than in 2022. In June, after the start of the harvest, the forecast was raised to 68 million tons, which was 7% less than in 2022. Now, thanks to favorable weather conditions, we have every reason to change the forecast in a positive direction to 76.7 million tons, which is 5% more than the 2022 figure. Although the total area of spring and winter cereals sown this year was 980 thousand hectares less than last year, and amounted to 10,895 thousand hectares, the weather conditions contributed to an almost record yield of grain crops (up to 51.8 t/ha), which allows for a significant increase in volumes crop production. At the same time, according to preliminary estimates of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, in 2023, farmers will be able to harvest grain in the following volumes: wheat - 20.9 million tons, barley - 5.8 million tons, and corn - 28.1 million tons. Gross production of oil crops will reach 20.3 million tons. The sunflower harvest is forecast at the level of 12 million tons. It is predicted that farmers will harvest a record amount of rapeseed in recent years - 4 million tons. The production level of soybeans is 4.2 million tons. Farmers will also harvest 13.7 million tons of sugar beets this year.

But Ukrainian farmers have already threshed 22 million 961 thousand tons of early grain crops. Harvesting was carried out on an area of 5,292 thousand hectares with a yield of 43.7 quintals per hectare. The largest threshing in Odesa region is 3.2 million tons. Farmers in this region have already finished harvesting early grain and leguminous crops. Zaporozhye farmers are also the leaders in grain harvesting - they threshed 90% of the area.

At the same time, it is worth noting that the experts of Strategie Grains once again lowered the forecast for the wheat harvest in the EU based on the preliminary harvest data. In comparison with July estimates, the forecast for the production of soft wheat in 2023/24 was reduced from 126.2 to 124.7 million tons. At the same time, heavy rains in the north of Europe increase the risks of crop loss and a decrease in its quality. As a result of the deterioration of the weather in the south of Europe, the corn production forecast was also reduced to 58.7 million tons.

Meanwhile, Ukraine exported the first million tons of wheat in the new season - as of August 9, since the beginning of the 2023/24 marketing year, Ukraine has exported a total of 2.762 million tons of grain and leguminous crops, of which 488 thousand tons were shipped in the current month. But Russia has problems with stolen Ukrainian grain - its ports are full. As reported by Bloomberg with reference to SovEcon, Russia shipped 4.4 million tons of wheat in July, which is a record monthly figure and almost 60% above the average. In fact, the Russian Federation started the export season with the largest wheat stocks in three decades. At the same time, some terminals in the Sea of Azov stopped receiving grain due to a lack of storage capacity. Currently, smaller Russian ports in the Sea of Azov are more congested than the main Black Sea grain port of Novorossiysk. It is noted that usually ships sailing from the ports of the Sea of Azov unload onto large ships in the Kerch Strait, which sail on through the Black Sea, but shipping through the strait has been restricted due to security concerns. In addition, after the attack on the Russian oil tanker, some ship owners may become more cautious when entering Russian ports.

But those are not our problems - Ukrainian farmers have started sowing winter crops for the 2024 harvest. As reported by the press service of the MHP company, they started sowing rapeseed at the company's crop enterprises in the Vinnytsia, Lviv and Sumy regions. In general, sowing of winter crops will be carried out in all regions where agricultural enterprises are present, which are 12 regions of Ukraine.