Export of Ukrainian grain may significantly decrease

The February report from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the USDA indicates that production and export of Ukrainian grain in the 2024/25 marketing year will significantly decrease compared to the previous period. Overall grain production is projected to decline by 13%, while exports are expected to drop by 26%.  

According to analysts' conclusions, this is due to exhausted grain stocks in Ukraine; although end-of-season grain stocks are expected to increase by 19% to 1.8 million tons, they will only represent a small fraction of what was available before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The largest projected decrease is observed in corn, with production expected to fall by 24% and exports by 33%. Wheat production is estimated at 22.9 million tons, which is nearly the same as the previous season's figure, but its exports will decrease by 19% to 15 million tons. 

It should be noted that, according to the European Commission, since the start of the 2024/25 marketing year and until February 11, EU countries exported 19.7 million tons of grains and processed products. This figure is 33% lower than in the same period of the previous season. Specifically, the export of soft wheat during this period was estimated at 13 million tons, which is 36% less than last year. For other grains, the EU's export of durum wheat in the current season is estimated at 390 thousand tons (-6% year-on-year), barley at 2.86 million tons (-19%), and corn at 1.19 million tons (-53%). 

Last year, it was planned that in the current marketing year, Ukraine could export over 60 million tons of grains and oilseeds and their processed products. Meanwhile, according to the State Customs Service, as of January 17, since the start of the 2024/25 marketing year, Ukraine had exported 23.904 million tons of grains and legumes, with 1.672 million tons shipped since the beginning of the current month. Comparatively, as of the same date last year, the total shipment volume was 20.941 million tons. As of February 10, 2025, since the start of the 2024/25 marketing year, Ukraine had exported 26.552 million tons of grains and legumes, of which 861 thousand tons were shipped since the beginning of the current month. This figure is drastically different from last year's. As of February 12, 2024, the total shipment volume was 25.523 million tons, including 1.647 million tons in February. Thus, this year's February grain export is half of last year's. 

Additionally, it should be noted that only in January, Ukraine earned 3 billion US dollars from agricultural exports. Throughout the first month of the current year, the country exported 9.5 million tons of goods. The key export items in January were corn - 521 million US dollars (2.5 million tons), sunflower oil - 426 million US dollars (378 thousand tons), and wheat - 188 million US dollars (891 thousand tons). The European Union remained Ukraine's main trading partner in January with an export volume of 1.8 billion US dollars. Exports to other countries amounted to 1.3 billion US dollars, with leading partners being Egypt, Turkey, China, and the USA.