Rape will not go anywhere from Ukrainian lands

According to the updated forecast of "APK-Inform" analysts, about 750-800 thousand tons of rapeseed can be processed in Ukraine in the 2024/25 season. This indicator is 20-23% inferior to the indicator of the 2023/24 marketing year. Such a reduction in processing compared to the previous season may occur due to a decrease in the yield of this oil mill in 2024 in Ukraine and due to increased competition between factories and exporters.

However, in general, according to experts, the volume of rapeseed processing in Ukraine will remain at a fairly high level for the industry. Thus, during April, market participants announced a significant increase in demand for new crop oilseeds from domestic processing enterprises, for several reasons. Among the main ones - quite a good margin of rapeseed processing and high demand for rapeseed oil. In addition, against the background of the expected shortage of sunflower in the summer, rapeseed is a good alternative, as last year's practice shows.

In addition, this year, the canola processing season may start earlier than usual, given the earlier flowering and ripening of the winter crop, as well as the expected earlier start of harvesting. Thus, the processing of rapeseed domestically in the season may increase significantly, but for the entire marketing year it may not show a record figure, as in the current season, due to the expected tougher competition for oilseeds against the background of a decrease in supply.

However, Ukrainian rape will be much more expensive in the new season. This will be facilitated by local frosts in May and the growth of stock market quotations. Competition for rape between exporters and processors will also increase. Analysts note that there is currently no official information on statistics, however, according to producers, in the Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Kirovohrad regions, damage to rapeseed crops in individual farms is up to 30-40%. Because of this, there will be no predicted gross harvest of rape at the level of 4-5 million tons in Ukraine. If last year it was possible to harvest 4.7 million tons, this year the harvest will not exceed 4.1 million tons. This reduction in production will push prices up.

Also, experts predict an aggravation in the new season of competition between exporters and oil refiners. According to their information, it is planned to process about 500-550 thousand tons of rapeseed in Ukraine. Therefore, we can expect a struggle for oil between exporters and processors. If in the past Ukraine quickly exported rapeseed in 2-3 months, this year the season was long and lasted until February-March. Therefore, you can not expect a large offer of oilseed from farmers in July-August, because only those who need quick money will sell rapeseed during harvest. Currently, conditional prices for rapeseed are 420-425 euros per ton based on the Odesa SRT. Analysts note that there is already a high demand for the new rapeseed crop: both traders and processors are actively contracting oilseeds. In particular, contracts for delivery to Germany are concluded at prices of 460-465 euros per ton on a DAP basis.

And here is the benefit of our rapeseed for others - thanks to Ukrainian rapeseed, Romania will reach record export figures. After all, in the west of Romania, where the fields have received enough moisture, farmers have high hopes for a new rape crop. According to UkrAgroConsult analysts, some farms are expected to produce 4.5 t/ha. Local farmers are hoping for better post-harvest prices due to frost damage to canola in neighboring Poland, strong German demand and lower EU production forecasts in 2024. At the same time, in the current season, Romania will export a record amount of rapeseed (2 million tons), in particular thanks to high residual stocks after active purchases from Ukraine last season.