The Ukrainian "Borscht Index" has increased by almost 20% in a year

In March of this year, the cost of borscht is UAH 177, which is more than 19% higher than last year, while this "index" has increased by 9% in the last month. For the calculations, experts from the "Ukrainian Agribusiness Club" took a recipe for borscht, where 300 g of cabbage, 200 g of beets, 300 g of potatoes, 150 g of carrots, 100 g of onions, 2 tablespoons of tomato paste, 30 ml of oil, 500 g of pork ribs and spices are needed for three liters of water.

It was established that cabbage rose in price by 71% in a year, and beets rose in price by 51% in a year. At the same time, potatoes rose in price by 26% per year, and carrots - by 271%. In addition, onions fell in price by 1% per year, and tomato paste rose in price by 14% per year, oil rose in price by 38% per year, and pork ribs - by 7%.

Thus, taking into account food inflation, a number of factors that affect food prices today, a decrease in the cost of products on the eve, in particular on the eve of the Easter holidays, should not be expected. As the Deputy Chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, Denys Marchuk, noted, the process with food inflation continues, and in the new year it already reaches more than 13%. Accordingly, this forms the cost of production, which is then put on store shelves.

As the expert added, the war factor has not disappeared, because logistics due to the loss of connection chains continues to be quite expensive. Expenses for fuel, expenses for salaries, expenses for teams, because teams must be kept in conditions of mobilization. Those who cannot do this go into technology, and this is also additional costs. Then this is transferred to the cost of production.

"Therefore, unfortunately, we note that during this period of time we will not see a decrease in prices. Especially before the Easter holidays, when demand for certain products will increase," explained Denys Marchuk.

About a month ago, experts believed that there would be no categories of products that would not become more expensive by the new season. Dairy products are becoming more expensive due to the increase in the cost of feed, and meat - due to the reduction in livestock and high costs of keeping it. In particular, as noted in the UNIAN study, the increase in excise taxes, which began in September, has not yet fully affected the market. After all, traders had stocks at the old price, but from January, fuel prices will affect the cost of production and transportation costs. For example, if meat prices rose slowly in 2024, their significant jump may occur in 2025, which will lead to an increase in imports.

In fact, food inflation in 2025 directly depends on how successful the year will be for Ukrainian farmers, but no one can now give a forecast regarding this year's yield. Ukrainian retail chains are also restrained in their forecasts regarding further price increases. It should be noted that, according to analysts, annual inflation in Ukraine in 2024 was 12%, and food prices increased by 14% per year. At the same time, cheap products rose the most. The price of borscht set, vegetables, bread, pasta, and cereals also jumped, although meat did not rise much in price.

At that time, most experts agreed that one of the main reasons for the increase in food prices was the poor harvest of 2024 due to abnormal heat and drought. Farmers harvested much less - 30% less potatoes. This affected the volume of supply in the market, which provoked price increases. It should be noted that 44% of Ukrainians began to buy the cheapest products more often and pay less attention to their quality. Almost half of Ukrainians save on food. According to experts, when there is a fall in real incomes of citizens in Ukraine, the middle class begins to move to a cheaper segment of consumption. This transition leads to the fact that cheap products receive additional demand.

By the way, the head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Andriy Pyshnyy, said that in the first months of 2025, prices will continue to rise due to the continued impact of low harvests last year, as well as due to the increase in the cost of production. Currently, the National Bank predicts that inflation for 2025 will reach 8.4%. Its peak will be in the second quarter, and it will begin to decline from the middle of the year. Low harvests, higher electricity prices, higher tariffs for gas and electricity transportation for businesses, possible power outages, devaluation of the hryvnia, rising raw material costs and labor shortages will contribute to the acceleration of inflation. The average monthly inflation may reach 13% per year. By the end of the year, inflation may reach 9%.