Ukraine is at war with the Russian Federation on the agricultural market for a number of European markets

The main markets of the European Union, on the development and preservation of trade with which Ukraine should focus, are Spain, the Netherlands and Italy. The corresponding opinion is held by a number of agricultural experts, whose positions are cited by mass media.

As experts note, thanks to the May EU restrictions on Russian agricultural products, a division has formed in the world market of agricultural raw materials: Russians are increasing exports to Asian and African countries, and Ukrainians are increasing exports to the European Union. At the same time, the Russians heavily dump: for example, sunflower oil is sold at a discount of up to $50 to the Ukrainian price, and sunflower meal is $15-20. Because of this, in the current season, Ukrainian farmers should diversify their export channels as much as possible. At the same time, the main markets of the European Union, on the development and preservation of trade with which Ukraine should focus, are Spain, the Netherlands and Italy.

In particular, the main trade strategy for Spain is not to overheat this market with excessive exports from Ukraine. After all, in September 2024, Spanish farmers already protested against Ukrainian grain, so it is important to prevent a trade confrontation, as happened with a number of Eastern European countries in the past two years. Another traditional importer of Ukrainian agricultural products is the Netherlands. Before the Great War, the country bought even more of this culture than Spain, at the level of 2 million tons per year.

It should be noted that the export of goods from Ukraine in 2024 in monetary terms has already exceeded the indicators of the previous year. At the same time, agricultural products occupy the lion's share of exports. High export results, according to Svyridenko, became possible thanks to the acceleration of the export of new crop products, the stable operation of the "Ukrainian Maritime Corridor" and the restoration of domestic production, which is actively ongoing. From January 1 to November 17, 2024, Ukraine exported the most oil, corn, wheat, and metal ores. At the same time, the current marketing year, which lasts from July 2024 to June 2025, may become more successful for Ukrainian grain traders and farmers than the previous two seasons. As the general director of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation (UAC) Pavlo Koval stated in an interview with the Delo.ua portal, the optimistic forecast will come true if the grain corridor works and the current security situation in Ukraine is preserved. He noted that the export potential during the war was lower than the pre-war 100 million tons. In 2024-2025, he predicts a reduction of the gross harvest by another 8-10% compared to the 2023-2024 marketing year, to 69-70 million tons of grain, oil and leguminous crops. He added that if the volume of destruction of the logistics infrastructure does not increase, and the ports of Great Odesa and the Danube will work, then Ukraine will be able to export this harvest.